文档介绍
JuanjuanMengGuanghuaSchoolofManagementOutline1.Bayesianupdatingruleandexampleofviolation2.Lawofsmallnumber2.1.Laboratoryevidence2.2.Theory2.3.Fieldstudies3.Overconfidence3.1.Laboratoryevidence3.2.Theory3.3.Fieldstudies4.Projectionbias4.1.Laboratoryevidence4.2.Theory4.3.FieldstudiesRoadmapTmaxtp(s)U(x|s)tttxXtt0sStPreviouspart:non-standardpreferencesThispart:non-standardbeliefs/beliefsupdatinglawofsmallnumberOverconfidenceprojectionbiaslevel-kthinking:beliefsaboutothers’behavior1.BayesianupdatingBayesian“inference”ishoweconomistsassumethatpeoplerationallyincorporatenewinformationintotheirprobabilisticbeliefs,andultimatelyasaninputintotheirdecisions.P(Y|X)P(X)P(X|Y)P(Y)Wheresometimes,weneedtoapplytheLawofTotalProbabilitytofindP(Y)P(Y)P(Y|X)P(X)iii41.Bayesianupd